ESP(N)

I'll start by saying this: I like ESPN. I watch ESPN. Wilbon is a guy I'd like to have a beer with and if I ever see Chris Broussard in person, I'll give him a windmill high-five. But I'm not so sure these guys are great at prognosticating how the NBA Playoffs will unfold. It's surely not an easy job and I'd probably fall on my face if I tried doing the same.

But with 83% of the first round of the 2011 NBA Playoffs over, I had a thought. Which expert predicted the outcomes best? I'll go through each one and award points for each prediction: 1 if you get the winner right, with a bonus 3 if you predict the number of games correctly. (This makes four points total, which I chose since a team wins one of four ways, e.g. 4, 5, 6, 7 games.) Here we go.

Correct winners in blue, correct winners and number of games are in red.

EASTERN CONFERENCE:

Chicago Bulls vs. Indiana Pacers

A strong start here. Everyone picked the winner correctly. Three bonus points for Michael Wilbon, Tim Legler, Hollingerbot-5000, Chad Ford, Chris Broussard, JA Adande, and whoever this Friedell kid is. It looks like every team has a hometown blogger/writer picking the series, so we'll count them aggregately.

Wilbon - 4
Legler - 4
Hollingerbot - 4
Ford - 4
Broussard - 4
JA Adande - 4
Local Writer - 4
Thorpe - 1
Sheridan - 1
Stein - 1
Arnovitz - 1
Abbott - 1

Miami Heat vs. Philadelphia 76ers


Wow. Another strong showing by the ESPN knuckleheads. 9 of 12 predicted the series exactly. Let's add that to the totals.

Wilbon - 8
Legler - 8
Hollingerbot - 8
Ford - 8
Broussard - 8
Local Writer - 8
JA Adande - 5
Thorpe - 5
Stein - 5
Arnovitz - 5
Sheridan - 2
Abbott - 2

Boston Celtics vs. New York Knicks

Good news/bad news here. Everyone picked the Celtics, but nobody picked the sweep. Everyone gets a point.

Wilbon - 9
Legler - 9
Hollingerbot - 9
Ford - 9
Broussard - 9
Local Writer - 9
JA Adande - 6
Thorpe - 6
Stein - 6
Arnovitz - 6
Sheridan - 3
Abbott - 3

Orlando Magic vs. Atlanta Hawks

OOPS. Atlanta won this series in a tidy 6 games. Nobody picked them to win 4 in seven tries, much less six. We award you no points, and my God have mercy on your souls.


WESTERN CONFERENCE

San Antonio Spurs vs. Memphis Grizzlies

Now, this is the only series that actually hasn't been decided yet, but for our purposes, it doesn't matter. If the Grizzlies win the series, everyone would be wrong. If the Spurs win the series, they have to do it in 7 games, which nobody predicted (yet everyone would get one point). So it's a complete wash, and we'll just move on... (Note that Brent Barry makes his first appearance here.)

Los Angeles Lakers vs. New Orleans Hornets

Another wash. Everyone predicted the Lakers' series win correctly, but nobody saw CP3 coming and somehow pulling off two wins for his squad. Everyone gets one meager point, so we'll update the totals. (Brent Barry filling in for Arnovitz.)

Wilbon - 10
Legler - 10
Hollingerbot - 10
Ford - 10
Broussard - 10
Local Writer - 10
JA Adande - 7
Thorpe - 7
Stein - 7
Arnovitz - 6
Sheridan - 4
Abbott - 4
Barry - 1

Dallas Mavericks vs. Portland Trailblazers

Finally a split decision. Two hit the nail on the head, four picked the right winner. This just might decide who the best predictor really is.

Thorpe - 11
Broussard - 11
Wilbon - 10
Legler - 10
Hollingerbot - 10
Ford - 10
Local Writer - 10
Stein - 8
JA Adande - 8
Arnovitz - 6
Abbott - 5
Sheridan - 4
Barry - 5

Oklahoma City Thunder vs. Denver Nuggets

Lots of people picking the Thunder here, but nobody guessing they pull off the series in five games. Award 1 point to everybody but SteinyMo and Henry Abbott.

Thorpe - 12
Broussard - 12
Wilbon - 11
Legler - 11
Hollingerbot - 11
Ford - 11
Local Writer - 10 (in six attempts)
JA Adande - 9
Stein - 8
Arnovitz - 7 (in six attempts)
Abbott - 5
Sheridan - 5
Barry - 6 (in four attempts)

So what does all of this mean? Out of 32 possible points, the highest anyone could get was 12. Now I realize if anyone got anywhere close to 32 they should be a professional sports gambler for a living and not an ESPN analyst. But what it means is that the experts are wrong. So very wrong, so very often. And with that as your final thought... I'll leave you with this: